UPDATE: Trump Says Iran Deal “Largely Negotiated” — But This Is the 5th Time He’s Said That
UPDATE — This story is developing in real time as of Saturday afternoon, May 23rd, 2026. We will continue updating as events warrant.
The President of the United States posted from the Oval Office on Saturday evening that a peace framework with Iran has been "largely negotiated" and that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened as part of the deal.
"An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly."
He added that he had spoken by phone with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain — and separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, describing that call as having gone "very well."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters following a meeting with India’s Prime Minister Modi, said: "There may be news later today. I don’t have news for you at this very moment, but there might be some news a little later today, there may not be. I hope there will be, but I’m not sure yet."
Reuters reported Saturday that Iran and Pakistan jointly submitted a revised proposal to the United States that Pakistani officials describe as "fairly comprehensive." A US response is expected by Sunday. "It is never over till it is done," a Pakistani official told Reuters.
This is genuinely significant. If a framework holds — if it is real, enforceable, and addresses Iran’s nuclear program in a verifiable way — it would end a conflict that has killed 13 Americans, thousands of Iranian civilians, cost approximately $25 billion in confirmed Pentagon spending, and kept global gas prices elevated for nearly three months.
The operative word, however, is if.
The Pattern That Demands Context
This is not the first time we have been here. It is at minimum the fourth or fifth time in roughly six weeks that Trump has declared a deal is imminent, close, or largely done. The record matters — not to dismiss today’s announcement, but to understand what "largely negotiated" has meant in practice.
Late March 2026: Trump began issuing Iran 10-day deadlines to "make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz." The deadlines were extended. No deal materialized.
April 7, 2026: Trump announced a two-week ceasefire contingent on Iran opening the Strait, saying the US was "very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Long-term PEACE with Iran." The ceasefire was announced. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council simultaneously claimed it had won a historic victory by forcing the US to accept Tehran’s 10-point plan. The two sides were describing the same agreement in completely opposite terms. The Strait did not fully reopen.
April 12, 2026: JD Vance flew to Islamabad for 16 hours of direct negotiations with Iranian representatives. The talks collapsed. Iran rejected the US offer. Trump responded by announcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Early May 2026: Trump paused "Project Freedom" — the US military’s operation escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz — citing "great progress" toward a "complete and final agreement." No agreement was announced.
This week: Trump cancelled another planned round of military strikes on Iran, citing "serious negotiations" — the second time he called off attacks while declaring a deal was imminent.
Throughout this cycle, Iran’s parliament speaker publicly accused Trump of using deal announcements to "manipulate the financial and oil markets" — noting that formal negotiations had not been held at the times Trump was announcing their progress. Oil prices have moved dramatically with each announcement and denial.
What Rubio’s Criteria Actually Requires
Secretary of State Rubio, speaking Saturday, reiterated the US’s stated requirements for any deal: Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened without tolls, and Iran must surrender its enriched uranium.
That last requirement — turning over enriched uranium — is the most significant and the most contested. Iran has spent decades building its nuclear program. Its enriched uranium stockpile represents both a strategic asset and a domestic political symbol of national sovereignty and technological achievement. Whether Iran has agreed, or can agree, to transfer that material is the central unresolved question.
It is also the question that determines whether any deal is actually better than the 2015 JCPOA — the Iran nuclear agreement that Trump called "the worst deal ever made" and tore up in his first term, citing the need for a tougher agreement. The war he started in February was justified, in part, on the claim that Iran was dangerously close to nuclear capability. A deal that does not verifiably address that capability would be, by the administration’s own stated logic, inadequate.
What Is Confirmed Right Now
As of this writing on Saturday evening, May 23rd:
Trump has posted that an agreement is "largely negotiated" with finalization expected shortly.
Iran and Pakistan have submitted a revised, "fairly comprehensive" proposal. A US response is expected Sunday.
Rubio has confirmed there "may be news" but that fundamentals remain under discussion.
The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has now redirected 100 commercial ships.
Israel has continued military strikes in Lebanon despite a US-brokered ceasefire, with Lebanon’s health ministry reporting more than 3,000 killed and more than one million people displaced.
Iran has not publicly confirmed any agreement.
No text of any memorandum of understanding has been released or independently verified.
What Comes Next
If a framework is announced and holds — if Iran genuinely agrees to surrender enriched uranium, reopen the Strait without conditions, and accept verifiable nuclear constraints — this would be a significant diplomatic development regardless of the path that led here. The cost of getting here has been catastrophic. An agreement that prevents further catastrophe would be worth something.
If this follows the pattern of the previous four or five announcements — if "largely negotiated" becomes "still being worked out" becomes another deadline extension and another round of strikes — then today’s post will be filed alongside April 7th, April 12th, and early May as another entry in a cycle that has been churning since late March.
Iran has submitted a revised proposal. The US has until Sunday to respond.
We are watching.
We will report what we find.
This article was first published earlier today with breaking news of Vance’s return to the White House. It has been updated to reflect Trump’s Oval Office post and the Reuters report on Iran and Pakistan’s revised proposal. We will continue updating as developments warrant.
